Forecasting Fast-Charging EV Demand at Strategic Service Hubs
Stakeholders: Orkustofnun (Icelandic National Energy Authority), Landsnet (Icelandic Transmission System Operator), Vegagerðin (Icelandic Road and Coastal Administration), Samorka (Icelandic Association of Energy & Utilities)
Timeline: 2023-2024
Region: Reykjavik, Iceland
Publication: Traffic-Based Demand Modeling for EV Fast-Charging Stations: A Case Study in Iceland
Project Summary
Anton & Company led a cross-agency initiative to better understand how Iceland’s rapidly growing fleet of electric vehicles (EVs) will impact the country’s energy infrastructure—specifically along its vital intercity corridor between Reykjavik and Akureyri.
With Iceland’s transportation sector undergoing fast-paced electrification, national planners face new challenges: Where should high-speed charging stations go? How much demand should they be built to handle? And how will seasonal tourism, freight traffic, and daily road usage patterns affect the grid?
To answer these questions, Anton & Company developed a demand modeling approach that links road traffic patterns with energy demand at key charging locations. This innovative methodology enables regulators, grid operators, and infrastructure developers to quantify how many electric vehicles are likely to charge—where, when, and how intensively—under various EV adoption scenarios.
A Grounded, Scalable Approach
Instead of relying on hypothetical or isolated vehicle data, our team integrated real-world traffic information from Vegagerðin and strategic site guidance from Orkustofnun and Landsnet. We assessed peak demand and load profiles at candidate Fast Charging Service Station (FCSS) locations to inform electrical sizing and grid connectivity decisions.
By simulating full electrification scenarios for both passenger and freight vehicles, the results revealed that expected power loads at key stations could exceed 10 MW—crossing the threshold for classification as "power intensive users" requiring direct connection to the transmission system. These insights validated prior siting decisions and quantified the scale of investment required for resilient charging infrastructure.
Seasonal patterns, traffic directionality, and the role of charging speeds were also explored, uncovering trends that will help stakeholders right-size charger counts and anticipate grid impacts throughout the year.
Stakeholder Impact
This study delivers more than just numbers—it provides a repeatable, jurisdiction-aware method for charging infrastructure planning. It has helped:
Orkustofnun validate location strategies for charging infrastructure investment.
Landsnet assess future grid impacts and plan transmission upgrades accordingly.
Vegagerðin translate road usage data into actionable energy insights.
Samorka promote integrated planning across the mobility and energy sectors.
Client Testimonial
"This project reflects the kind of cross-sector insight Samorka seeks to promote. By linking traffic patterns to grid service areas, Anton & Company created a scalable method for forecasting EV demand—offering real value to regulators, grid operators, and investors planning charging infrastructure."
— Almar Barja | Specialist | Samorka
Anton & Company is proud to continue supporting Iceland’s third energy transition—delivering data-driven tools that help stakeholders make confident, forward-looking infrastructure decisions in the face of electrification.
